Joshua Davis, Isaiah Lekikunit, Mark Leleruk (2025). Amaya Triangle Peace Report : Chronological Analysis of Conflict Instances from October 2023 - March 2024

Chronological Analysis of Conflict Instances from October 2023 - March 2024

Abstract

The conflict tracking reports from the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 provided hope for the work Community Safety Initiative-Kenya (CSI-K), backed by its partners, is achieving in the Amaya Triangle. Overall, we saw a 42% decrease in conflict across the two conflict-reporting counties of Laikipia and Samburu. Utilizing our conflict identification methodology outlined below, we have created an effective means of understanding instances of different types of conflict. This style of data reporting enables us to conduct a chronological comparative analysis to examine any of our types of conflict, conflict locations, or interventions across quarters. Here, we have primarily examined the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024. However, we extended our purview to include reported conflict starting in January of 2023 to get a broader picture of the relative peacefulness of the Amaya. At the end of the document, we have listed our goals for future research and programming. As mentioned above, conflict generally declines within the Amaya Triangle. There was a decrease in CI (conflict incidence) reports from all regions. This information will help support more refined data gathering for future Peace Index Reports, stakeholder progress reports, and CSI-K programming.